How Kagame is gearing for a post-Wagner Africa

Wagner’s African adventurism was neatly summed up when Russian television set loose to insult Yevgeny Prigozhin in the wake of the failed putsch, labelling him the ‘wannabe Robin Hood west who was robbing the hood’. In a Daily Maverick analysis, Phillip van Niekerk notes that the leader who stands to gain most if Wagner’s African empire is weakened is Rwanda strongman Paul Kagame. ‘Wagner’s critical selling point in those places where jihadists have launched brutal insurgencies is that they are prepared to go where others fear to tread – especially since the decline of French military power on the continent. But Rwanda has shown greater military professionalism and success in some of the worst conflict zones. And yet the business models of Rwanda and Wagner are not that dissimilar: both are developing commercial empires off their military foothold.’ Van Niekerk notes that a new report from the International Crisis Group on the CAR, where both Rwandan and Wagner forces are on ground, details how Kigali has forged these economic partnerships. ‘Kagame managed to get Rwandans appointed to key UN positions such as the Secretary General’s Special Representative to the CAR and head of the police of Minusca (the UN Multi-dimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission). Kigali housed its commercial projects with Crystal Ventures, a holding company owned by Kagame’s ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front, with assets valued at $500m. More than 100 Rwandan firms produce consumer goods such as mineral water and yoghurt, and hold stakes in transport, logistics, restaurants, hotels, real estate and public infrastructure projects. In Lobaye and Ombella-M’Poko prefectures, CAR nationals manage farms bought by Rwandans. A regular flow of Rwandan immigrants is moving to the CAR, particularly former soldiers returning as settlers. Kagame has replicated this model in Mozambique where Rwanda sent 1 000 troops and police to Cabo Delgado in July 2021 to help crush the Islamist insurgency and where Wagner had taken a mauling 18 months earlier and withdrawn.’ Van Niekerk adds that it’s a fair bet to say that Rwanda and its budding commercial wings will continue to expand across the continent, especially if Wagner is now largely out of the game.

Full Daily Maverick analysis