Ethiopia, Eritrea tensions on the rise

There are growing concerns over the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks. Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a fierce war of words, says a BBC News report. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea dismissed. Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1 350km Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it landlocked. Five years later, a border war erupted in which more than 100 000 people died. Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border – and hinted at the desire to take it by force. On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's ‘mistake’ of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be ‘corrected tomorrow’. Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was ‘Ethiopia's wealth’ and would be returned ‘by force’. ‘The question now is not whether Assab is ours or not, but how do we get it back?’ Bacha told pro-government YouTube Channel Addis Paradigm on 3 November. On 21 September, army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula told soldiers that they would fight a country that had denied Ethiopia access to the sea, a reference to Eritrea. ‘Our population is now 130m and will grow to 200m in the next 25 years. How come the interests of 2m people (referring to Eritrea) override those of 200m people?’ Birhanu asked on 25 October. ‘We will strengthen our defence forces, speed up our development and secure a sea outlet.’

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel, notes the BBC News report. He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as ‘dangerous’ and a ‘toxic agenda’ of ‘irredentism’ – a policy of claiming back lost territory. The Information Ministry warned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise ‘flagrant aggression’ would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbours and is a ‘redline that should not be crossed’. In a rare reaction to the threats from Ethiopia, the Eritrean army warned in a report on 13 November that Ethiopian leaders should refrain from leading the Ethiopian people into a quagmire.

Full BBC News report

Human Rights Watch added that the fragile truce largely insulating civilians in northern Ethiopia from war crimes and other abuses may be unravelling. In recent weeks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accused the Tigray region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of using its budget for military activities. The Ethiopian army chief called the party a ‘criminal clique’ that needs to be eliminated. Tensions have risen since Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF repeatedly appealed, without success, for international mediation. There have also been mounting tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, which Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister alleged was colluding with the TPLF to wage war. For months, diplomats and analysts have been warning that provocations between the two countries could lead to renewed conflict in areas that have not had a chance to recover from previous fighting. The 2020-2022 conflict in northern Ethiopia, which spread from Tigray to the Afar and Amhara regions, was marked by serious atrocities, claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people, displaced millions, and destroyed critical infrastructure. The Ethiopian government imposed a crippling siege on Tigray, while local officials and Amhara militias in Western Tigray carried out an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Tigrayan population that amounted to crimes against humanity. In November 2022, Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF signed an African Union-brokered truce.

Full Human Rights Watch report

Human Rights Watch added that the fragile truce largely insulating civilians in northern Ethiopia from war crimes and other abuses may be unravelling. In recent weeks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accused the Tigray region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of using its budget for military activities. The Ethiopian army chief called the party a ‘criminal clique’ that needs to be eliminated. Tensions have risen since Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF repeatedly appealed, without success, for international mediation. There have also been mounting tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, which Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister alleged was colluding with the TPLF to wage war. For months, diplomats and analysts have been warning that provocations between the two countries could lead to renewed conflict in areas that have not had a chance to recover from previous fighting. The 2020-2022 conflict in northern Ethiopia, which spread from Tigray to the Afar and Amhara regions, was marked by serious atrocities, claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people, displaced millions, and destroyed critical infrastructure. The Ethiopian government imposed a crippling siege on Tigray, while local officials and Amhara militias in Western Tigray carried out an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Tigrayan population that amounted to crimes against humanity. In November 2022, Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF signed an African Union-brokered truce.

Full Human Rights Watch report