Africa tightens belt over threats from Iran war
Publish date: 06 April 2026
Issue Number: 1171
Diary: IBA Legalbrief Africa
Category: Economy
The Middle East war, which is wreaking havoc on African economies, has forced the continent’s leaders to enforce strict rules to combat surging oil prices and food insecurity, while battling corrupt elements taking advantage of the volatile situation, notes Legalbrief. According to BBC News, Ministers in Senegal have been banned from all non-essential foreign travel following the rise in the price of oil resulting from the conflict in Iran, the Prime Minister has announced. Speaking at a youth rally on Friday, Ousmane Sonko said that the current cost of a barrel of oil was approaching double what had been budgeted for. Sonko has postponed his own trips to Niger, Spain and France as part of the restrictions. He said that the Mines Minister would announce further measures to curb government spending in the coming week. Senegal's move is the latest response from the continent to the oil price rise, which has seen countries reducing fuel levies and rationing electricity. In his speech to young people, the Prime Minister said he did not want to ‘frighten’ his audience or put pressure on them. Instead, he wanted to give them a ‘sense of this world, which is a difficult world’. Despite a fledgling oil and gas industry, Senegal relies heavily on importing fuel.
Last year, the International Monetary Fund described the economy as ‘robust’. But its public debt – standing at more than 130% of the total annual size of the economy – is high. Sonko, installed as Prime Miinister two years ago, blamed the previous government for saddling his administration with the debt, which he said had made the current situation of dealing with the price of oil even more difficult. Elsewhere on the continent, last week South Africa's government responded to the rising oil price by reducing the tax it charges on petrol in an effort to limit the increase of the cost of fuel at the pumps. Fuel shortages in Ethiopia have forced some government institutions to send employees on annual leave, South Sudan has started to ration electricity in its capital, Juba, while Zimbabwe is increasing the ethanol content in its petrol. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran has also led to a restriction of the supply of fertiliser to the rest of the world, reports BBC News. An estimated 30% of this essential farming input goes through the Gulf. Humanitarian organisation, the International Rescue Committee has warned that this was a ‘food security timebomb’, particularly for East Africa which relies on fertiliser imports from the Middle East.
Further escalation in the region could force vessels to reroute or halt, compounding delays to food, fuel, and humanitarian supplies, states the International Rescue Organisation on its website. It says the impact will hit already fragile countries hardest. Sudan imports more than half of its fertilizer from the Gulf. Kenya sources 40% of its fertilizer and 90% of its wheat from the same region, while serving as a key re-export hub for Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda. Somalia, Bangladesh, and Jordan face comparable exposure. It notes that for families already skipping meals or selling essential assets to survive, this is not a future risk; it is a rapidly unfolding food security timebomb. This crisis is hitting a global food system already under extreme strain. Nearly 320m people are acutely food insecure worldwide – double the number in 2019. The IRC is already seeing immediate operational impacts: in Somalia, ready-to-use therapeutic food and other critical nutrition supplies remain stranded mid-route, unable to reach populations facing catastrophic need.
According to the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM), the war once again exposes the extreme fertilizer dependency of Sub-Saharan Africa. The region is uniquely vulnerable as it almost entirely imports (up to 90%) its limited usage from outside. Low local production and high inland transport costs makes Sub-Sahara African fertilizers some of the most expensive in the world. The result is a deep under-utilisation by African farmers, a gap that economic shocks only widen. Africa’s under-fertilization is driving hunger, huge land use change emissions and biodiversity loss. African leaders recognise ‘the fertiliser’ problem of underuse and import dependency. The 2006 Abuja target, focused on increasing use, was widely missed. The 2024 Nairobi Declaration seeks to triple domestic production, and some African countries are well placed to start. Those with natural gas reserves – Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia – are looking to expand grey (ie., natural gas-derived) fertilizers, while those without – Uganda and Kenya – are seeking to leverage their renewable energy potential to produce green (i.e., low-carbon) fertilizers.
The Middle East war ‘presents a serious risk to Africa’, the African Union and the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in a report seen by AFP on Saturday. The conflict threatens to increase the cost of living and curtail growth on the continent, the report warned, reports africanews. The Middle East accounts for 15.8 % of Africa's imports and 10.9 % of its exports, the report noted. ‘The conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions,’ it added. The growth rate of most African countries continues to be slower than before the Covid pandemic, it noted. ‘The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent.’ Reduced deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf will impact fertilizer production, limiting its availability during the crucial planting period up to May, it added.
The report was compiled by the UN Development Programme and the UN Economic Commission for Africa. According to recent data from the AfDB, the currencies of 29 African countries have already depreciated, increasing the cost of servicing external debt, making imports more expensive and reducing foreign exchange reserves, notes africanews. Some countries could see some short-term gains, such as Nigeria for its oil exports or Mozambique for its LNG. The rerouting of ships around Cape of Good Hope could benefit ports in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia and Mauritius. Kenya is establishing itself as a logistics hub in East Africa, while Ethiopian Airlines, the leading carrier in Africa, is serving as an ‘emergency air bridge’ between the continent, Asia, and Europe, the report noted. But these gains are likely to be uneven and will not offset the consequences for inflation, budgets, and food security in Africa, they warned. Above all, the current crisis could hit the costs of humanitarian aid and divert donor funds towards other priorities.
Meanwhile, senior executives in Kenya’s energy sector have resigned following accusations of manipulating fuel stock data and procuring an emergency cargo at inflated prices, President William Ruto’s office said on Saturday. According to Channel Africa, Ruto accepted the resignation of Mohamed Liban, Principal Secretary for Petroleum, while the Kenya Pipeline Company confirmed that its managing director, Joe Sang, had also stepped down, the statement said. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s director general, Daniel Bargoria, has also resigned, according to the statement. A formal investigation has been launched into alleged irregularities in Kenya’s petroleum supply chain, it said. The government said the manipulated data was used to justify the emergency importation of fuel, despite standing contracts with Saudi Aramco Trading Fujairah, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Global Trading Ltd, and Emirates National Oil Company Singapore Ltd., all of which are meeting their contractual obligations. It alleged that the emergency shipment was overpriced, of substandard quality, and procured at rates significantly higher than those agreed under existing deals. ‘This appears to have been done to exploit rising global prices and public anxiety, thereby creating a false impression of an impending supply shortfall,’ the statement read. The investigations have been launched amid the fuel supply concerns linked to the Iran conflict, which has affected global energy markets. Administrative action has been taken against additional officials and arrests made by investigative agencies, the statement said. It did not identify those who had been arrested. No one has been charged.
