Will Trump be first to recognise Somaliland?

Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the US, under the Presidency of Donald Trump, is poised to become the world's first country to recognise the self-declared republic, writes analyster and author Mary Harper in BBC News. Harper notes that the territory declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war – and in many ways has functioned as a de facto nation-state ever since. She points out that for those in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an indivisible part of Somalia. However, Harper states that powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the recognition, including Congressman Scott Perry who last month introduced a Bill proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland. ‘It followed the publication in April 2023 of Project 2025, a roadmap for the second Trump Presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organisations. The document mentions only two African territories in its sub-Saharan Africa section – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes "the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US' deteriorating position in Djibouti".' Harper says there is no guarantee the incoming administration will follow the blueprint, some of which Trump has already disavowed. ‘But one thing is clear. The US has already started to change its stance on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-focused approach, known as the "one-track" Somalia policy.'

Somalia has cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s when the bodies of 18 American servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters. The battle, known as "Black Hawk Down", was America's worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.’ Harper quotes Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar as saying: ‘Any move towards recognising Somaliland's independence would not only contravene Somalia's sovereignty but also destabilise the region by setting a dangerous precedent.’ Harper states in the BBC News analysis that the African Union and other global powers believe territorial integrity is paramount. ‘Recognising Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists across the world demanding recognition for the territories they claim. The scramble for foreign bases along the Horn of Africa's coast is of concern to the US, which established its largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.' Donald Trump, says Harper, may be enticed to recognise Somaliland if he sees a good business deal in it ‘Pro-recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump's deal-making approach. Project 2025 used the term "hedge".’

Full analysis on the BBC News site