Cautious optimism over DRC, Rwanda peace agreement
Publish date: 30 June 2025
Issue Number: 1132
Diary: IBA Legalbrief Africa
Category: Diplomacy
Analysts and experts have adopted a wait and see approach following the signing of the peace accord between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, brokered by the US and Qatar, while on the ground aid workers and citizens affected by the years of relentless violence are hoping the fragile treaty will hold, notes Legalbrief. According to BBC News, the deal has elicited mixed reactions, with the former Congolese President, Joseph Kabila, describing it as ‘nothing more than a trade agreement’. The deal signed on Friday demanded the ‘disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration’ of armed groups fighting in eastern DRC – but offered few other details. While some, including Kabila, have been critical, others have hailed the agreement as a turning point in a devastating conflict that has dragged on for decades. Rwanda has denied allegations it backs an armed group, known as M23, which has been fighting in the eastern DRC. The conflict escalated earlier this year when M23 rebels seized control of large parts of eastern DRC, including the regional capital, Goma, the city of Bukavu and two airports. The UN says thousands of people have been killed and hundreds of thousands of civilians forced from their homes following the recent rebel offensive. The M23 disputes the figures, saying fewer than 1 000 people have died. After the loss of territory, DRC’s government turned to the US for help, reportedly offering access to critical minerals in exchange for security guarantees. Eastern DRC is rich in coltan and other resources vital to the global electronics industries. In a post on X following the signing of the agreement on Friday, Kabila questioned the choice of the deal's participants, saying the DRC was not at war with the states depicted in a photo of the signing, which included President Donald Trump and other US officials, as well as Rwanda's Foreign Minister.
It is not entirely clear if his comments were an indirect criticism of the absence of M23 representatives in Washington. ‘We must stop distorting the facts to disguise a propaganda agenda,’ Kabila said, adding ‘Congolese people deserve the truth, not a diplomatic show’. The absence of M23 representatives was also noted in the rebel-held city of Goma in eastern DRC. ‘How can they say they sign for peace, yet they have not involved M23?’ a resident questioned, adding the rebels ought to have been included in the talks for ‘collective peace’ to be found, according to BBC News. Similarly, Sam Zarifi, executive director at Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), an international NGO that has worked in the DRC for more than a decade, said the Washington-brokered agreement is replete with ‘major omissions’. ‘There can be no durable peace without meaningful justice. But the agreement...sidelines human rights and fails survivors,’ Zarifi said. He added: ‘The agreement overlooks how hostilities can continue through proxy armed groups that our research has shown are responsible for serious violations.’ Stephanie Marungu, head of a humanitarian organisation in Goma, was more positive. ‘The signing of the deal…is a momentous and hopeful development for the eastern region,' she told the BBC, adding it could ‘lead to increased stability and it's going to make it easier for us to deliver aid and access those in need’. However, she acknowledges there may be challenges in implementing the deal. It remains to be seen what the situation on the ground will be going forward, with concerns the Washington deal may simply enrich a few people with the country's mineral resources to the detriment of ordinary people.
The deal would see Kinshasa and Kigali launching a regional economic integration framework within 90 days and forming a joint security co-ordination mechanism within 30 days, reports Al Jazeera. Under its terms, thousands of Rwandan soldiers are to withdraw from the DRC within three months. ‘This moment has been long in coming. It will not erase the pain, but it can begin to restore what conflict has robbed many women, men and children of safety, dignity and a sense of future,’ said Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner. ‘So now our work truly begins,’ she added at the signing, saying the agreement would have to be followed by disengagement, justice, and the return of displaced families, and the return of refugees, both to the DRC and Rwanda’. ‘Those who have suffered the most are watching. They are expecting this agreement to be respected, and we cannot fail them,’ she said. Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said that the agreement heralded a ‘turning point’. While Rwanda denies accusations it is backing M23, Kigali has demanded an end to another armed group in the DRC – the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) – which was established by Hutus linked to the killings of Tutsis in the 1994 Rwanda genocide.
During the signing, he insisted on ‘an irreversible and verifiable end’ to the DRC’s ‘support’ for the FDLR. The agreement calls for the ‘neutralisation’ of the FDLR. Reporting from Goma, the capital of the DRC’s North Kivu province, Al Jazeera’s Alain Uaykani said the deal was a ‘big step’, but there was ‘confusion’ on the ground over the absence of any mention of when the M23 rebels would withdraw. The deal does not explicitly address the gains of the M23 but calls for Rwanda to end ‘defensive measures’ it has taken. Rwanda has sent at least a few thousand soldiers over the border in support of M23, according to UN experts, analysts and diplomats. The agreement was mediated through Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman and father-in-law of Trump’s daughter, Tiffany, who was appointed by the President as a senior adviser on Africa. Analysts see the deal as a major turning point but do not believe it will quickly end the fighting that has killed millions of people since the 1990s.
The treaty leaves many unanswered questions, according to the Eastleigh Voice. Trump had already referred to the agreement as a ‘wonderful treaty’ even before its final signing, but some critical voices doubt whether the deal is far-reaching enough. ‘This agreement marks a very important step towards establishing peace in the African Great Lakes region,’ said Yvon Muya, a political analyst focused on African affairs at Saint Paul University in Ottawa, Canada. ‘But nobody knows yet whether it will hold. That will depend primarily on the two parties concerned, i.e. the Congolese and Rwandan authorities.’ There's a great deal of hope resting on the agreement, which could potentially bring an end to 30 years of unrest in eastern Congo. But Tom Fletcher, under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief at the UN agency OCHA,said that in the absence of any external controls to guarantee peace on the ground, it was ‘very important to ensure that everyone sticks to this peace process’. ‘I hope it will help stabilise the situation here. Life is very difficult for these communities,’ Fletcher said. ‘The world is distracted by Europe, Israel, Iran and so on. I'm here to remind people that we must not forget about the Congo,’ Fletcher said. The city of Goma bore witness to the brunt of atrocities and fighting. ‘I was truly shocked to see the rate of violence against women,’ Fletcher said. ‘Although this peace process will deliver a different life for these communities, we need to strengthen international law and protect people. We have to ask: Will this peace help protect them against sexual crimes, sexual violence?’ The UN says rape has historically and systematically been used as a weapon of war in Congo by M23 rebels and other groups fighting to expand their influence.
Experts expressed hope that the new peace deal will help ease the dire humanitarian crisis in the region, according to a report on the AA site. More than 6.7m people are internally displaced across Congo, according to UN figures released late last year. Many Congolese nationals have fled to seek refuge in neighbouring countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Burundi, amid dwindling donor aid, which has pushed the UN World Food Programme to reduce food rations or scrap them in some countries. ‘Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people and refugees who have fled the conflict in Congo will certainly return home. People have been suffering as a result of this conflict, especially women and children,’ Harold Acemah, a political analyst and retired Ugandan diplomat, said. The conflict has disrupted the delivery of food, medicine, and humanitarian materials. Many places remain inaccessible due to the lack of security, leaving displaced people without necessities. Acemah said the peace deal is a positive development that should be welcomed by all members of the African Union. 'They should play a role for it to be implemented,’' he noted. The US-brokered deal is based on the fundamental principles established in a declaration of principles signed on 23 April between the two countries.
Acemah is optimistic the deal will be respected because of the involvement of the US, a superpower, and hopes it allows the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need. ‘All countries in the region should encourage DRC and Rwanda to respect the agreement for the benefit of their citizens and the region,’ he said. Buchanan Ismael, a political scientist at the University of Rwanda said that refugees are expecting both parties to respect the agreement so that they can return home. He said if the deal is to be respected, the government of Congo should commit to welcoming thousands of refugees who are Kinyarwanda speakers who were previously denied entry and labelled as Rwandans. Ismael said many peace negotiations have been held, including the Luanda Process, Nairobi, and Doha, but none have been implemented or succeeded, according to AA. ‘We are hopeful that the peace deal will lead to a reduction of violence in the Kivu region, certainly, but it’s too early to judge because there have been negotiations for peace deals in the past that did not deliver much. So we are optimistic but cautious,’ Stephan Goetghebuer, a programme manager with the Doctors Without Borders medical charity, said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has welcomed the accord, saying it is ‘a significant step towards de-escalation, peace and stability in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Great Lakes region.’ According to UN News, the Secretary-General commended the US for its leadership in facilitating the mediation process, in co-ordination with Qatar and the African Union mediator, President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo. He also acknowledged the contributions of the five co-facilitators designated by the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. He urged the parties to fully honour their commitments under the peace agreement and in line with UN Security Council resolution 2773 (2025), including the cessation of hostilities and all other agreed measures. The resolution, unanimously adopted in February, condemned the M23 offensive and called for the DRC and Rwanda to return to diplomatic talks. The Secretary-General concluded his statement by saying the UN, including through its peacekeeping mission in the DRC, Monusco, ‘remains fully committed to supporting the implementation of the agreement, in close coordination with the African Union, regional and international partners’. Coincidentally, the Security Council met on Friday to discuss developments in the DRC. The Secretary-General's Special Representative for the country and Head of Monusco, Bintou Keita, welcomed the peace agreement as a significant step towards ending the conflict. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, echoed this message in a statement on Saturday, saying the agreement ‘offers a chance to stop the cycle of violence. Furthermore, it ‘can bring renewed hope to those who have endured far too much for far too long,’ added the agency’s chief, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. ‘This is a chance to turn the page – ensuring the protection of civilians, including refugees and internally displaced people, and advancing durable solutions that allow them to rebuild their lives in safety and dignity,’ he said.
