Ruto's uphill battle to tame Gen Z protesters

Protesters braving police batons, water cannon and occasional bullets on Kenya's streets have taken up a rallying cry (‘Ruto wantam’, or Ruto one-term) that is likely to unnerve its embattled President, William Ruto, writes Hereward Holland and Edwin Okoth in a TimesLIVE analysis. They says Ruto won power almost three years ago, vowing to protect the poor and end police violence, but he is facing mounting public dissatisfaction over high living costs, corruption and police brutality that could yet seal his fate as a ‘wantam’ leader. ‘As the faint drum beat of the 2027 election grows louder, analysts say, his administration will need not only to deliver on its economic promises but also adopt a more conciliatory tone to win over a younger, better-educated population.' The fact that a government-funded rights group said 31 people were killed nationwide in the latest anti-government protests last Monday, held to mark the 35th anniversary of pro-democracy rallies, contributes to the unhappiness, they say. According to Holland and Okoth, Ruto's Government has been consistently slow to respond to public discontent. ‘Last year, he only abandoned proposed tax hikes after protesters overran Parliament in unprecedented scenes flashed across TV screens around the world. His Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen branded last month's protests as a "coup attempt" by what he called "criminal anarchists". Unlike his predecessors, Ruto faces a generation of uncompromising young Kenyans desperate for economic opportunities, who can mobilise amorphously through social media, bypassing opposition parties and leaders.’

They also state in the TimesLIVE analysis that the so-called ‘Gen Z’ protesters, the product of free schooling introduced two decades ago, have no recollection of authoritarian rule. ‘Many were not yet born when Kenya introduced multiparty elections in 1992. With up to 800 000 young people entering the job market each year, Gen Z are more educated than their elders, but also more likely to be unemployed, according to a report by Afrobarometer.’ Holland and Okoth believe that discontent with the government found a lightning rod last month with the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody. ‘On 25 June, some 19 people lost their lives in demonstrations over Ojwang's death. The administration's hardline response to protesters has rattled investors in East Africa's largest economy. Business expectations fell to their second-lowest level on record in May, according to a survey by Stanbic Bank Kenya.’ However, they say that despite the swelling disillusionment, Kenyans are left with few options for now. ‘Ruto's large parliamentary majority ensures he won't be unseated prematurely. He also faces a weak and fractured opposition which is yet to find a standard bearer for the next election. Following last year's protests, Ruto brought former Prime Minister Raila Odinga into his government, neutralising his main threat. He has two more years to turn things around, or use his incumbency to help ensure a second term.’ They conclude that Ruto will hope that his increased social spending and programmes aimed at tackling youth unemployment, combined with positive economic prospects and a decline in inflation, will bolster his appeal. ‘However, that may not be enough to avoid “wantam,’ they note, quoting Javas Bigambo, a political commentator.

Full TimesLIVE report