What is Israel’s endgame in Africa?

From South Sudan to Zambia, the Israeli Government appears to be on a charm offensive, dangling aid and arms, with experts saying it might be working. ‘In late August, government officials from Zambia and Israel assembled to celebrate the reopening of the Israeli embassy in Lusaka. It was the first time in 52 years that an Israeli flag would be raised in the Zambian capital, following a long period of severed ties,’ asks Shola Lawal in an Al Jazeera analysis. Lawal says undoubtedly, it comes at a time when much of the world is isolating Israel due to its devastating onslaught on the Gaza Strip. ‘Israeli media hailed the move as a triumph. One called the small Southern African country Israel’s “next great Africa frontier”.’ According to Lawal, the reopening event appears to be part of a series of calculated moves by Israel to pull African nations to its side at a time when its global standing is damaged, experts say. ‘Some say strengthening ties with Zambia appears to be Israel’s crack at weakening its regional neighbour, South Africa, which is Israel’s fiercest critic in Africa. A week before the Zambia event, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sharren Haskel, visited Nigeria, where she met with her counterpart. However, Abuja, which has proclaimed support for Palestinians, did not publicise the meeting on social media channels. Two weeks later, Nigeria’s anti-terrorism unit detained Ramzy Abu Ibrahim, a leader of the Palestinian community in Nigeria.'

It’s unclear what Ibrahim’s offence is, or if the Israeli Minister’s visit is connected to his arrest.’ Haskel, then went on to South Sudan, a staunch Israel ally, promising aid to the fragile, young country caught in armed conflict between President Salva Kiir and sides loyal to First Vice-President Riek Machar, notes Lawal. ‘What the diplomat did not mention was that her visit came right as reports leaked of talks between Israeli and South Sudanese officials over controversial plans to forcibly transfer Palestinians from Gaza to the East African country. South Sudan has denied the talks. There are similar talks of autonomous Somaliland hosting expelled Palestinians from Gaza in exchange for official recognition from the United States and Israel. Somalilanders say they want no part in it.’ Lawal states that Israel’s image in Africa, on average, is poor, although it’s not for a lack of trying on the Israeli Government’s part. ‘One reason is that Israel does not carry the weight of countries like China and Russia, which are looking to more deeply engage African leaders for their mineral resources and for their votes at the United Nations General Assembly.’ The bigger reason for African countries’ distancing, though, researchers note, is Palestine.’ Relations with the continent were not always unfriendly, states Lawal in the Al Jazeera analysis. ‘Israel ingratiated itself with most African nations in the 1950s and 1960s, after they gained independence from colonial powers in waves. Things turned ugly amid the October 1973 war, when those nations began to see Israel as a pariah encroaching not just on Palestine, but on Egypt, and in effect, on Africa.'

'Uganda was the first to turn from Israel. Within the space of months, more than 20 African nations had abruptly cut ties. The collective effect of that cold disapproval dealt a grave diplomatic blow to Israel. It was unprecedented, and no region has ever again jointly moved so strongly against Israel.’ Lawal says Israel has since pushed for a return to the friendly days with some success. It reopened about 11 embassies across Africa, down from an initial 33 embassies and consulates before 1973. ‘A few of the countries Israel is wooing, such as Nigeria, are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which brings together 57 countries globally with significant Muslim populations, and has repeatedly called for ceasefires in Gaza.’ Lawal points out that Sudan and Morocco, also part of the OIC, agreed to normalise relations with Israel under the US-brokered 2020 Abraham Accords. ‘In 2021, Israel attained observer status at the African Union, after two failed attempts. Israel has particularly set eyes on East Africa, especially Ethiopia, home to 160 000 Ethiopian Jews, some of whom Israel secretly airlifted in 1991 amid the Ethiopian civil war.’  After it began its war on Gaza in October 2023, whatever fragile support Israel had on the continent appeared to largely collapse, says Lawal in the Al Jazeera piece. In a landmark case, South Africa accused Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice  in December 2023, and the AU, early on in the war, was unequivocal in its condemnation of Israel and its support for Palestinian statehood.’ Lawal references Muhammad Desai, co-founder of the solidarity group, Africa4Palestine, who insists that Israel’s strategy is already being diluted and that ultimately its efforts on the African continent will fail.

Full Al Jazeera report