Is Tshisekedi’s third term bid benefitting M23?

Constitutional legitimacy has consequences beyond domestic politics, writes Nirvaly Mooloo, a research officer, and Remadji Hoinathy, a senior researcher on Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin ISS in an analysis in News24. They say this became evident when former President Joseph Kabila’s delayed departure from office triggered not just protests in the DRC but a legitimacy crisis that weakened Kinshasa’s diplomatic position regionally and globally. ‘When public trust in the electoral process declined, so did Kinshasa’s ability to garner international support. On 15 June, the DRC Senate adopted a constitutional revision Bill that would effectively reset presidential term limits. If enacted, the Bill would enable a referendum on a new Constitution under which President Félix Tshisekedi’s previous terms would not count, clearing the way for a third term.’ Mooloo and Hoinathy believe that Tshisekedi’s constitutional tinkering could become self-defeating, with consequences that extend beyond diplomacy. ‘Rather than strengthening the state’s ability to confront conflict, postponing elections under the guise of security would further weaken already fragile governance. Years of weak institutions, corruption and the eastern DRC conflict have undercut public confidence in the state, with only 12% of the population expressing trust in electoral processes.’

A referendum and a conditional electoral cycle would exacerbate fragility in two key ways, they say. ‘First, low public trust undermines the credibility of democratic processes, increasing the likelihood that election outcomes are seen as manipulated rather than representative… Second, continued violence in eastern DRC creates an environment in which political contestation is easily securitised…’ A primary concern for the DRC is that the proposed constitutional changes will reproduce patterns of past political instability, they claim in the News24 analysis. ‘Despite military operations, states of siege and regional deployments, Kinshasa has struggled to reverse the gains of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)/M23. Its more effective strategy has been internationalising the conflict. United Nations investigations, sanctions, regional mediation initiatives and increasing Western pressure have all helped highlight Rwanda’s support for the rebellion.’ They point out that the DRC has consistently framed the conflict as an act of external aggression against a sovereign state. ‘And although the conflict is widely viewed as a culmination of both internal and external issues, Tshisekedi’s constitutional manoeuvring risks complicating Kinshasa’s diplomatic messaging. Rather than defending allegations of support for the rebellion, Rwanda can now highlight Kinshasa’s political tensions and constitutional controversy, complicating the DRC’s efforts to maintain a clear, consistent message.’

Mooloo and Hoinathy state in the News24 analysis that internationally, a range of responses could unfold. ‘European governments and multilateral institutions have previously emphasised the need for constitutional governance and democratic norms in DRC. For them, attempts to extend presidential tenure could raise difficult questions about Tshisekedi’s political legitimacy. By contrast, US engagement is driven less by democratic principles than by strategic interests, including regional stability and critical mineral supply chains. The partnership risks giving Tshisekedi additional political backing, as Washington abandons any pretence of favouring democratic or state reforms in its transactional and extractive foreign policy.’ They feel that Kinshasa’s declining democratic legitimacy would also strengthen the AFC/M23’s long-standing demands for autonomy and hybrid governance by reinforcing the claim that the central government does not represent all Congolese. ‘Averting the outcome of Tshisekedi’s constitutional manoeuvring requires action now, not after the process closes.'

'The Catholic Church and civil society coalitions remain among the DRC’s most influential domestic actors, and their role in promoting dialogue and public debate should be supported through ongoing engagement and capacity building. The focus should be on ensuring that credible domestic voices are consistently included in national conversations on constitutional reform.’ They add  in the News24 analysis that regional and multilateral actors, including the East African Community, International Conference on the Great Lakes Region and UN, should strengthen coordination of existing mediation and early warning mechanisms to prepare for preventive engagement if tensions escalate. ‘International partners engaged in DRC peace processes must clarify the conditions attached to their support. Diplomatic backing, including pressure on Kigali, cannot be decoupled from Kinshasa’s constitutional conduct. Kinshasa cannot afford to fight two legitimacy battles at once: one against Rwanda in eastern Congo and another over constitutional succession at home.’

Full News24 report