Home ground advantage for Russia at 2024 Brics Summit?

Is Brics a broadly useful association to reduce much of the world’s dependence on the West? Or is it becoming an instrument to help Russia – and to an extent China – counter their own growing tensions with the West? The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) notes that the answer to these questions may become clearer after the 2024 Brics Summit, which Russia will chair from 22 to 24 October, in Kazan, southwest Russia. ‘It is clear that Russia – and China – are trying to fashion Brics to help serve their geopolitical strategies, including by expanding its membership. They drove the admission of new members at last year’s summit in Johannesburg. The five original bloc leaders offered membership to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  Argentina’s newly elected populist anti-government President Javier Milei flatly declined membership. Saudi Arabia has simply not replied to the invitation – perhaps to avoid antagonising the US. That leaves nine members in “Brics Plus”. Iran’s inclusion was obviously a concern to the West, given Tehran’s active military support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. In Kazan, these nine leaders will discuss possible further expansion of the bloc.

Brics members Brazil, India and South Africa believe a more equitable order can be attained by complementing rather than confronting the Western international economic order. ISS notes that Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel recently made this argument in Foreign Affairs. ‘Decision-makers in Brasília and New Delhi are keen to take a non-aligned stance and find a middle ground between the West, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other,’ they said. Arina Muresan, a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Pretoria, says ‘one of the major questions about the Brics Summit is whether geopolitics takes precedence over the association’s efforts to rebalance the global economic order.’ She says new payment systems would genuinely benefit SA but would not be easy, since dominant systems are Western-oriented, and SA tentatively balances its interests regarding its relationships with both the East and West.

Full Institute for Security Studies analysis