Energy: IRP includes ‘sustained’ renewable energy roll-out

The electricity demand forecast underpinning the latest iteration of government’s integrated resource plan has been revised downward to reflect the ongoing impact of lower levels of economic growth than originally anticipated, according to Energy Minister Jeff Radebe. The draft plan nevertheless provides for the ‘consistent and sustained roll out of renewable energy’ until 2030 – based on a test case scenario in which ‘annual build limits on renewables are removed’ in response to concerns about constraints on renewable energy featured in the 2016 draft plan, reports Pam Saxby for Legalbrief Policy Watch. 

Gazetted yesterday for comment within 60 days and informed by updated technology costs, the draft plan’s overarching objective is to improve ‘security of supply’ nevertheless ‘minimising cost, … water usage and environmental impacts’. To that end – and using the least-cost policy imperative as a ‘starting point’ – the proposed new plan is also informed by test case scenarios reflecting: ‘the impact of varying electricity demand projections’; appropriate ‘sensitivity’ to ‘assumed gas price projections’; and ‘the impact of using a carbon budget approach to constrain emissions from electricity generation’.

The ‘closer monitoring’ of updated assumptions is expected to ‘ensure’ that government remains ‘alive’ to fluctuations in the balance between supply and demand and is well-placed to ‘accelerate or decelerate’ the plan’s implementation – or ‘even revise the plan (itself)’ if necessary. In addition, ‘calculated steps’ will be taken to increase the ‘levels of participation of … previously marginalised South Africans’ as government moves ‘with speed’ to respond to the changing energy landscape. However, this will be addressed ‘outside’ the process of regularly updating the plan.