Why trade agreement could be dead in the water

On a continent dominated by autocratic regimes run by rapacious cronies and cartels who thrive on the status quo, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is more likely to be honoured in the breach. In a Daily Maverick analysis, Sizo Nkala notes that the trade pact is everything these regimes so passionately and violently despise, yet they are the ones to be counted on to implement it. ‘In a continent populated by equally unyielding autocratic and cartel-driven regimes, compounded by the inherent weaknesses of the AU, the implementation of the pact will be an uphill task. The potential economic benefits are astounding. The World Bank estimates that the new trade regime could unlock growth in income of up to $450bn, while lifting 30m people out of poverty by 2035. Moreover, the free trade area, which is also the largest in the world, would place Africa on a sound footing in the global economy through efficiency gains, the emergence of new value chains and industrial diversification. It is expected to boost intra-African trade, which stands at 15% compared with 60% in Asia and 68% in Europe.’ Nkala notes that the AfCFTA is fundamentally underpinned by values of economic inclusiveness, broad-based empowerment, property rights and the rule of law. ‘Therein lies part of the problem. According to the 2020 Freedom House Report on democracy in the world, only 14% of Africa’s 55 countries are designated as free, 49% as partly free and a staggering 37% as unfree. A tiny and fortunate 9% of its 1.3bn people are said to be free, 52% partly free and 39% unfree. Of the 10 worst performing countries in the world in terms of democracy and freedom, five are in Africa.’