Fresh tensions over mega dam project

As Ethiopia begins diverting 13.5bn cubic metres of water from the Blue Nile river to its controversial new mega-dam, residents of Sudan to the south fear a repetition of last year’s devastating drought. The second stage of filling the $4.5bn reservoir is ratcheting up tensions between Ethiopia and neighbours Sudan and Egypt, who depend on the Nile to support farming and generate power for their economies. In a Moneyweb analysis, Simon Marks and Mohammed Alamin note that it is also altering decades of behaviour by the river, which normally swells in July when seasonal rains come. ‘And it affects tens of millions of people living along the 4 000-mile-long Nile who rely on it for their water supply. The move by Ethiopia to tap enough water to fill 5.4m Olympic-size swimming pools was telegraphed for months. And yet it highlights how the many rounds of attempted mediation with Sudan and Egypt have failed, raising questions as to whether a solution can ever be found, or if Ethiopia will simply win by getting the dam filled in the meantime.’ The authors point out that it also comes at a delicate time for the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has a strong incentive to push ahead with the project and make good on his promises to rejuvenate an economy that’s set to grow at a tepid 2% this year. ‘None of the parties in the wrangling over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam want the dispute to set off a broader war. But the more the dam becomes a reality, the greater the risk is that it bleeds into pre-existing military frictions.’

Full analysis on the Moneyweb site