Tanzania turns east as west shifts ground

Samia Suluhu Hassan’s recent state visit to Moscow could signal a global reorientation – or it could be just hedging bets, writes Peter Fabricius, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) consultant. Fabricius notes on the ISS website that in June, Hassan conducted Tanzania’s first state visit to Russia since the country’s first President, Julius Nyerere, travelled there in 1969. ‘Her visit, with a large business delegation, included a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. It was probably no coincidence that Russia initially made overtures to Samia after her 98% win in the controversial October 2025 elections, from which her rival, Tundu Lissu, head of the Chadema party, had been barred. The African Union said “the 2025 (elections) did not comply with AU principles, normative frameworks, and other international obligations and standards for democratic elections.’ Even the Southern African Development Community  noted that “in most areas, voters could not express their democratic will...’ Fabricius points out that the elections sparked widespread protests that were brutally suppressed, which in turn provoked considerable local and international condemnation. But in April, Judge Mohamed Chande Othman, chairperson of the commission of inquiry appointed by Samia into the violence, laid the blame largely on oppositionists, notes Fabricius.

‘But Western governments are not buying that. They have condemned the state for political violence and started moves to sanction it. On 21 May, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US had imposed a travel ban on Police Chief Faustine Jackson Mafwele based on “credible information that he was involved in gross violations of human rights.” Meanwhile, a bipartisan Bill prompted by the post-election crackdown passed out of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations to the full Senate in June. The Bill would cut US economic support for Tanzania, assess its growing ties with China and Russia, and require a comprehensive review of the US-Tanzania relationship.’ Fabricius adds in the ISS analysis that this month, the European Parliament voted to stop the proposed disbursement of a €156, European Union development package for Tanzania’s 2026 co-operation programme, citing concerns over post-election violence and democratic backsliding. ‘The Western ground seems to be shifting against Tanzania as it moves from democracy towards autocracy. And Samia’s Moscow visit suggests alienation from the West is pushing Tanzania and Russia closer together. Tanzania has historically pursued a relatively non-aligned and pragmatic foreign policy Putin is known to seize opportunities when African countries fall out with the West over democracy issues. In the Sahel, Russia has supported military juntas that ousted elected civilian governments and expelled Western governments… But does Samia’s Moscow trip indicate that she is reciprocating, adopting a “Look East” policy and turning her back on the West for its criticism?’

Fabricius references Tanzanian political scientist Nicodemus Mindeas saying that Russia offers political engagement without attaching governance or human rights conditionalities in the way many Western partners do, making it an attractive diplomatic option for governments under external pressure . Nonetheless, Mindeas says in the ISS analysis, Samia’s visit should be understood less as an ideological shift than as a pragmatic diversification of Tanzania’s foreign policy options. Successfully pursuing a non-aligned policy is not necessarily up to Tanzania alone, states Fabricius. ‘South Africa also pursues what it regards as non-alignment, attempting to maintain strong relations with Russia, China and Iran while enjoying good relations with the US and Europe. That has worked with Europe, but not the US, which hit Pretoria with extra aid cuts, tariffs and other measures. Will Tanzania experience the same problems? Perhaps not, as Minde questions whether significant sanctions against Tanzania will materialise.’ This as Tanzania remains an important regional partner in East Africa, and he believes that given the current US administration’s transactional diplomacy, critical minerals and the like will probably trump concerns about democracy in Tanzania.