Africa braces for fallout as Iran conflict escalates

African countries are bracing for an economic fallout after the US and Israel's strikes on Iran, and that country's retaliation with missile and drone attacks across parts of the Middle East. As the African Union (AU) and other African leaders call for a diplomatic end to the attacks, they are warning that vulnerable African countries could be severely impacted, notes Legalbrief. Mohmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the AU, has expressed grave concern over the co-ordinated military strikes, describing the development as a dangerous escalation with far-reaching global consequences, reports Business Day Nigeria. Youssouf warned that the strikes mark a serious intensification of hostilities in an already volatile region, and could further destabilise international peace and security. He called for immediate restraint and urgent de-escalation by all parties involved, stressing the need to adhere strictly to international law and the principles of the UN Charter. He said diplomacy – not force – remains the only sustainable pathway to peace.

Beyond the immediate security implications, the AU chief cautioned that the escalation could have ripple effects across global energy markets, food supply chains and fragile economies, particularly in Africa. Youssouf noted that many African countries are already grappling with conflict, inflationary pressures and external economic shocks, making them especially vulnerable to disruptions triggered by instability in the Middle East. Analysts have long warned that heightened tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US could disrupt oil exports and shipping routes, leading to spikes in fuel prices and commodity costs worldwide. For African economies heavily dependent on imports of refined petroleum products and food staples, such volatility could compound existing socio-economic challenges. Youssouf urged all concerned actors to prioritise diplomatic engagement and support ongoing international mediation efforts, including those facilitated by the Sultanate of Oman, aimed at reducing tensions and preventing a broader regional conflict. The AU’s intervention adds to growing international calls for calm as fears mount that further escalation could draw in additional actors and deepen instability across the Middle East, reports Business Day Nigeria. To make matters worse, Iran has struck at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery. This action has led to Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco pausing operations at the refinery, reports First Post. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, too, has called for maximum restraint as the Iranian conflict intensifies. The strikes, which President Donald Trump said were aimed at destroying Iranian missiles and annihilating its navy, follow repeated US-Israeli warnings that they would strike Iran if it pressed ahead with its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. The Citizen reports that the attacks have seen Middle Eastern countries close their airspaces, leaving thousands of travellers, including those travelling to and from SA, stranded. Dubai International Airport sustained some damage from Iran’s retaliatory airstrikes, while airports in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait were also hit. The Daily Maverick reports that Emirates has paused all flights to and from Dubai until today. Qatar has also suspended flights until the Qatari airspace is safely reopened. Airports Company SA (Acsa) confirmed that the continued closure of the UAE airspace was affecting Emirates and Qatar Airways flights at various SA airports. ‘Passengers scheduled to depart from SA airports to destinations in the Middle East and the UAE are strongly advised not to proceed to airport precincts until they have confirmed the status of their flights directly with their respective airline,’ said Acsa, according to an IoL report.

Kenya says that just about a fortnight before the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) reviews pump prices, the global oil prices have surged significantly after Iran closed a critical shipping line following the escalation of tensions, reports the Kenyans. Iran yesterday closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil and gas flows, bringing international shipping to a standstill and effectively hiking fuel prices globally. This closure will certainly lead to a hike in fuel prices in Kenya, as global oil prices are projected to surge past Ksh12 800 ($100) per barrel, said Daniel Bargoria, director-general of Kenya's EPRA. ‘The closure will affect the landing price, a key factor used by EPRA to determine pump prices. He said despite the Kenyan Government entering into a government-to-government deal with Saudi Arabian companies to transport oil to Kenya, the deal was also at risk. Bargoria noted that while the deal includes fixed freight rates, the conflict in Iran may force suppliers to use more costly insurance routes, which could lead to higher fuel prices. ‘The Strait of Hormuz is considered a cost-effective route for transporting oil and gas from Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Alternatives involve lengthy rerouting around Africa, which is costly. These increased costs mean that even if the oil is available, the final price will likely rise to cover the cost of transporting it from the Gulf to the Port of Mombasa.’

In South Africa, the rand weakened in early trade yesterday as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East rattled investors and added to global economic uncertainty, reports CNBC Africa. ‘Although the US is involved, and the Trump administration’s stance on tariffs continues to undermine the USD’s value, it remains a haven for investors seeking to shield themselves from the volatility that might follow this weekend’s events,’ said ETM Analytics in a research note. Like other risk-sensitive currencies the rand often takes cues from global drivers such as US policy.

Meanwhile, members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, popularly known as Shi’ites, led by Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, on Sunday protested in Gombe, Niger, Kano, Bauchi, Yobe and Sokoto states over the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike. This as the Nigeria Police Force ordered all the Commissioners of Police in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to heighten surveillance across the country, reports the Daily Trust. They directed them to pay particular attention to the North Central, the North East and the North West of Nigeria amid tensions in the Middle East. Shi’ites and Iran are connected by shared faith, religious leadership, history and a common sense of global identity, with Iran acting as the symbolic and practical hub of Shi’a Islam. Protests by the Shi’ites were also reported in Kano, Bauchi and Yobe States.