Familiar challenges as Africa enters 2026

A quarter of the way through the 21st century, Africa continues to face numerous familiar challenges, while also making strides in entrenching democracy, the rule of law and good governance, writes Katharine Bebington in a Sunday Tribune analysis. Bebington notes that 2025 saw a mix of progress and setbacks across Africa, as coups and attempted coups continued to destabilise some countries. Meanwhile, she says, conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, alongside broader geopolitical tensions, had far-reaching repercussions for the continent. But she states that in 2025, 17 countries held various forms of elections across all of the continent’s regions, ranging from Egypt’s senate elections in North Africa to Namibia’s local and regional council elections in Southern Africa, while the island nations of Seychelles and Comoros also went to the polls. ‘However, in some cases, the conduct and outcomes of these elections were disputed or gave rise to political tensions. In the case of Cameroon, President Paul Biya secured an eighth consecutive term in office, raising the prospect of a leader remaining in office until close to his 100th birthday.' 'Opposition figures have continued to allege that the outcome of the elections was rigged... Similarly, in Tanzania, the outcome of the elections was disputed, with the country experiencing electoral violence as citizens clashed with security forces, and internet access was shut down.’

By contrast, in neighbouring Malawi, Bebington says the country’s democratic processes largely held. ‘The September polls saw former President Peter Mutharika return to power after defeating incumbent Lazarus Chakwera and another former President, Joyce Banda. The Malawi elections, therefore, offer a positive example of a democratic change of power in Southern Africa, while further entrenching democratic principles in the country. Unfortunately, not all changes of power occurred through democratic means in 2025. Recently, both Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau experienced unconstitutional changes of government (UCGS).’ In the case of Guinea-Bissau, Bebington states in the Sunday Tribune analysis that the coup came on the back of recently held elections. ‘In 2025, the military again played a decisive role in the outcome of the elections… In Madagascar, incumbent President Andry Rajoelina fled the country following widespread protests against his government, after an elite unit within the army intervened in support of calls for his removal. In both Madagascar and Guinea-bissau, the UCGS point to chronic issues of power and governance.' 'Chronic cycles of poor governance have prompted repeated military interventions, followed by transitions to civilian governments that fail to address the issues facing the country, paving the way for further military involvement. It appears that a pattern is emerging that, in times of crisis, it is the military that is called on to safeguard the interests of the elite.’

However, 2025 did not bring a resolution to the ongoing conflict in the eastern DRC, notes Bebington in the Sunday Tribune. While SADC troops have withdrawn and Burundi continues to maintain active deployments in the area, agreements brokered by the US in June and December have failed to bring an end to the fighting. Both Rwanda and the DRC accuse each other of violating the terms of the Us-brokered agreements. This ongoing impasse suggests that a resolution to the decade-long conflict remains distant, as neither state has made significant changes to its rhetoric regarding the conflict.’ The conflict in Sudan, states Bebington, has also continued unabated, with any agreements to end the fighting also seeming a far-off prospect. On a brigher note, in 2025, South Africa (SA) held the presidency of the G20, hosting the group’s first summit in Africa in November. ‘South Africa’s presidency was generally hailed as a success, with the country using this opportunity to focus on industrialisation and development of the Global South, climate justice, multilateralism and addressing global inequality. However, the year was not without adversity for SA, as US President Donald Trump and his government repeatedly accused the country of failing to prevent a white genocide. 'This culminated in the US boycotting the G20 Summit in Johannesburg and refusing to invite South Africa to any of next year’s G20 events during its presidency.’

Nigeria also faces the potential of strained relations with the US, as the country has been designated as a ‘country of particular concern’ due to claims in the US of the persecution of Christians. ‘This leaves Nigeria with a difficult diplomatic situation to navigate, and it can perhaps take lessons from the challenges that South Africa has faced in trying to counter a false narrative that has taken hold in Washington.' The US, Bebington states in the Sunday Tribune analysis, has also made decisions with repercussions for other African countries, as the decision by the government to end aid and development funding to the continent affects various aspects of life. As a result, many African countries are looking elsewhere for economic and development support, weakening the influence of the US in Africa, while strengthening the role of other actors.’ Looking ahead, Bebingto notes that in 2026, interesting developments will include the African Union’s summit taking place in February. ‘Also, 17 countries will hold elections in 2026, ranging from local government to national assembly and presidential elections. Of those countries, South Sudan is set to hold their presidential and national legislative assembly elections in December, which will be taking place after several significant delays. 2026 is also the 60th anniversary of the independence of Botswana and Lesotho, with both countries set to mark the occasion of their diamond jubilees.’