Wave of change sweeping through Southern Africa

In a year that has proven fatal for several ruling parties across the region, Wednesday’s Namibian election is set to be a tight contest for the ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo). Legalbrief reports that this year has seen the African National Congress – in power in South Africa since the dawn of democracy in 1994 – lose its parliamentary majority for the first time while the Botswana Democratic Party was ousted after almost six decades in power. And in Mozambique, although the ruling Frelimo won recent elections, civil society and opposition groups have demonstrated for weeks claiming fraud and demanding change (see reports below). Apart from Botswana, ‘these are countries that experienced their liberation much later than a lot of the other countries on the continent’, said Nic Cheeseman, a professor specialising in African politics at the University of Birmingham. The Sunday Tribune reports that Namibia gained independence in 1990, while Mozambique’s civil war ended in 1992 and South Africa’s first free elections were in 1994. Today, it is those known as the ‘born frees’ – after independence – who represent a large chunk of the electorate. ‘They don’t remember the liberation struggle, the solidarity and loyalty to the party that was generated then,’ said Cheeseman. If younger voters are rejecting the parties that liberated their countries, it is often because of their poor record, particularly on the economy. ‘Those parties have been seen to be failing to provide for the people. Jobs, in general, are a challenge, the youth are not working,’ said Tendai Mbanje, an election expert at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance. Corruption scandals have also tainted almost all of the liberation-era parties in the region. ‘With this wave of transitions that’s occurred, I think that Swapo will be really nervous,’ said Vandome.

While there has been much discussion about the results of SA’s elections earlier this year, and the ANC’s acceptance of them, this may one day be seen as part of a broader change in southern Africa. In a Daily Maverick analysis, Stephen Grootes notes that changes in bordering countries show how what has happened could be the work of historical forces, rather than just personalities. ‘Meanwhile, the two countries in the region which have not undergone major changes (eSwatini and Zimbabwe), and in which major change is unlikely, are both governed through oppression. This gives considerable scope to examine whether these changes are related. Of course, at one level, every country is very different to every other country. And that holds true here in southern Africa. And events that happen in one place can have a huge impact on events in another. For example, in 2016, the UK voted (narrowly) to leave the EU. In that same year, the US voted for Donald Trump to be President. The two are not related. But at the same time, there was a wave of populism which seemed to flood many countries in Europe.'

The author points out that there has been what some historians called a ‘third wave’ of democratisation after 1990. ‘This affected many African countries. The root cause of that was events many thousands of kilometres away. It was probably the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War that created the conditions for democracy to take deeper root in Africa, and perhaps, for apartheid to end. All of this suggests that trying to determine whether events in one country in southern Africa affect events in another country can be almost impossible. That said, it must surely be more than a coincidence that South Africa and Botswana have seen their governing parties fall below 50% and that Namibia may follow suit – all in the same year. This is particularly because while these countries are all different from one another (and have important diversity within them), there are also many similarities. Similar conversations around our colonial and racist histories (both South Africa and Namibia were run by the same apartheid state; Botswana was a British protectorate for part of the same period that South Africa was a British colony) lead to similar debates. And all face the same challenges of huge unemployment (particularly youth unemployment), and of trying to stimulate development,' notes Grootes in the DM.

Meanwhile, opposition leader Venancio Mondlane says he will accept President Filipe Nyusi’s offer of talks after Mozambique’s deadly post-election unrest on terms including they be held virtually and legal proceedings against him are dropped. Nyusi extended an invitation to Mondlane to meet at his office in Maputo last week after numerous people were killed in a police crackdown on protests against the results of the October 9 election. eNCA reports that the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights civil society group says about 65 people have been killed. Human Rights Watch has criticised the SADC for failing to denounce Mozambique for excessive use of force. ‘SADC has squandered an opportunity to publicly condemn human rights abuses against post-election protesters in Mozambique,’ it said in a statement. The rights watchdog urged the grouping to tell Nyusi’s Government to respect the right to peaceful protest and cease using unnecessary and excessive force. Mondlane, who says the election was rigged in favour of Nyusi’s Frelimo party, is believed to have left the country for fear of arrest or attack. His whereabouts are unknown. ‘We are open to dialogue. It has to be a genuine dialogue, it cannot be full of traps,’ Mondlane said in a Facebook live address. The authorities have laid criminal and civil charges against him, including for damages caused during protests by his supporters, which has led to his bank accounts being frozen.

Another condition in the document which was made public by Mondlane’s office is that ‘the judicial proceedings in question must be immediately terminated’. The Sunday Tribune reports that it also lays out 20 points that Mondlane wants on the agenda for talks, including ‘restoring electoral truth’ and prosecuting anyone involved in vote-rigging. Others are a public apology and compensation for the deaths during the demonstrations, as well as constitutional, economic and electoral reforms. The President is meant to hand over in January to Frelimo candidate Daniel Chapo, whom the election authority says won 71% of votes against 20% for Mondlane. 

The unrest was discussed by regional leaders at a summit of the 16-nation Southern African Development Community last week. 'However, the Harare Summit avoided endorsing Chapo’s disputed victory – a significant and prudent move. By refraining from premature recognition, SADC demonstrated an understanding of the unresolved electoral challenges and ongoing legal disputes before Mozambique’s Constitutional Council.' In a Daily Maverick analysis, Adriano Nuvunga notes that this silence, while welcome, is not enough. SADC must now translate prudence into action, supporting Mozambique in finding a sustainable, inclusive and democratic resolution to its crisis. The summit’s restraint has created a window of opportunity for SADC to act constructively. However, silence alone will not address Mozambique’s deepening crisis. By leveraging the expertise and mandate of its Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Affairs, SADC can provide the leadership necessary to steer Mozambique toward peace, justice and democratic resilience. This is not only a test of SADC’s commitment to regional stability but also a moment to demonstrate its role as a defender of democracy and human rights in southern Africa. Time is of the essence – action is needed now to prevent further deterioration and to lay the groundwork for a sustainable resolution.