Africa’s frail autocrat refuses to bow out
Publish date: 20 November 2017
Issue Number: 752
Diary: IBA Legalbrief Africa
Category: Zimbabwe
‘He came to global prominence with the winds of history at his back, but he now looks poised to exit the world stage as a frail and faded anachronism. Few remaining active politicians better capture the arc of 20th-century politics, and no sitting autocrat better illustrates the tragic, brutal path that revolutions can take.’
This Washington Post reflection on the man who single-handedly reshaped Africa’s political landscape, serves notice that it is game over for Robert Mugabe. However, Legalbrief reports that the dramatic power struggle over the past week gives a clear indication that Mugabe (and his wife Grace) will not go quietly. After all, among older Africans, Robert Mugabe is still held in considerable, though dwindling respect. A report in The Times report notes that 20 years ago, he was seen as the symbol of Africa’s liberation from colonialism, the man who fought a guerrilla war against white minority rule and won. That respect lingered throughout his rule, making it hard for Britain or the EU to persuade Zimbabwe’s neighbours or the AU to support sanctions against him. His overthrow has divided the continent. Some younger African leaders salute the end of a regime that has bankrupted Zimbabwe, but not a few autocrats see a dangerous precedent, and are underlining the AU’s condemnation of any coup.
Mugabe was expected to announce his resignation over the weekend, following pressure from the army and his own party. However, he shocked most of the world by apparently refusing to do so, and clinging on to power. The Independent reports that the refusal came amid a long and rambling televised address to the country. He then ignored a midday (Monday) deadline by the party's central committee to resign. Now the ruling Zanu-PF is expected to opt to force him out. It is thought to be pursuing legal routes of doing so, meaning that the President could very soon be impeached. The party has tabled its motion to impeach Mugabe and it is expected to pass. It accuses the President of bringing about instability by dismissing members of his Cabinet. A Zanu-PF member says there could be prosecutions of members of a party faction close to Grace Mugabe. A report on the News24 site notes that lawmaker Emmanuel Fundira said ‘corrupt and rotten’ leaders in the ruling party should be punished. ‘There are some resources which have been taken away from this country. Naturally, the laws will follow up and make sure that all those people are brought to book,’ he said.
The coup was supposed to be executed in December, ahead of the Zanu-PF special congress, but had to be brought forward when Mnangagwa was axed, according to City Press which says it has learnt that the military, political players and diplomats had been hatching the plan for some time in order to prevent the ascendancy at the congress of the G40 faction of Zanu-PF. Its figurehead is First Lady Grace Mugabe. The report says several governments in the region and abroad had been made aware of the plan and had no objection. They insisted that there be no bloodshed and that the overthrow should not be characterised as a coup. Sources reportedly told the newspaper that a senior Zimbabwean diplomat ‘sensitised’ regional governments ‘to the idea and necessity of the coup’ and ‘received assurances that there would be no military intervention’. The report notes that the coup was also given the tacit approval of China, Zimbabwe’s largest development partner.
Mugabe is teaching his comrades in the military a hard lesson that a half-coup will not achieve full results, or the intended results for that matter. In a News24 analysis, Ralph Mathekga notes that since the dramatic takeover by the military, it has become clear that a bloodless coup will not remove him from power. ‘Led by the chief of the military and former Mugabe ally, General Constantino Chiwenga, the coup was clearly intended to place Mugabe under siege and then persuade him to resign in a comradely way. It has thus far only proved that the word “persuasion” does not work well with the word “coup”. It makes no sense to stage a military coup and then open negotiations to persuade the targeted leader to walk away. Being the cunning leader that he is, Mugabe simply figured out that his comrades in the army lack the will to go all the way and remove him by force.’
The EFF believes Robert Mugabe should come to South Africa ‘and complete his retirement here’. A report on the EWN site notes that it condemned the DA’s rejection of the granting of political asylum to Mugabe and said they will never restrict their relationship with him as an African leader. ‘We’re saying that president Robert Mugabe must be released, come to South Africa, enjoy his last years in retirement to allow the process of peace and stability in Zimbabwe to be fast-tracked without anybody using his name to try and cause instability,’ said EFF spokesperson Mbuyiseni Ndlozi. He added that ‘no court of law in the world has ever found Mugabe guilty of a human rights violation’. However, Legalbrief reports that granting the disgraced leader asylum is further complicated by the current criminal case that Grace is facing in South Africa, following her alleged assault on model Gabriella Engels at a Sandton hotel in August. Lobby group AfriForum, acting on behalf of Engels, have vowed to prosecute the First Lady if she returns to South Africa, with their CEO, Kallie Kriel, saying they were already in the process of having Grace’s diplomatic immunity revoked through the courts.
The crisis in Zimbabwe was addressed in detail at the IBA Regional Forum Conference in Accra last week. Under the theme 'Dictators and political transition: Preventing the resurgence of a menace', speakers concurred that the tidal wave of democracy is sweeping through Africa. Gyimah Boadi, of the Center for Democratic Development (Ghana), said the situation in Harare – where President Robert Mugabe was under house arrest – was ‘encouraging’. ‘What is happening in Zimbabwe, particularly with regards to the very and the tentative approach by the military says a lot about what is happening around the continent.’ Legalbrief reports that he said he uses the word ‘tentative’ because the military might of that country is well aware that it cannot afford to have it’s intervention labelled a ‘coup’. ‘Indeed, they know that a coup will also be strongly condemned by the African Union and SADC as well as international groupings who will condemn it, not because of Mugabe’s plight but because of the policy of zero tolerance for coups in Africa,’ he said. Mohammed Ibn Chambas, executive secretary, Ecowas, pointed out that in terms of the relatively smooth transition from democracy over the past 25 years or so, ‘West Africa leads the way’. Boadi said the civil war in Liberia saw a huge number of refugees in neighbouring countries displaced. These countries said ‘no’. They said “if my neighbour’s house is on fire, it’s my business”.’ He noted that Benin set the standards with its peaceful transition to democracy in 1991 followed by Ghana in 1992. Other companies that made progress with regards to attempting to make the transition include Togo and Cameroon. ‘Of course that process suffered a reversal. While dictators explored democratic processes, they then found a way to reverse that process,’ he said.
A UK military veteran has reflected on the fascinating role he played in the drama that is unfolding in Zimbabwe. Lieutenant-Colonel Zach Freeth once trained General Constantine Chiwenga who is now head of the Zimbabwean armed forces ands was a leading figure in last week’s military takeover and the arrest of President Robert Mugabe. The Times reports that Freeth (76) was part of the British Military Advisory and Training Team (BMATT) that oversaw the integration of guerrilla fighters and Rhodesian soldiers into one unified army after independence in 1980. To help do this, a staff college recruited 10 veterans of the Rhodesian bush war, including Air Marshal Perence Shiri, the long-time air force chief, and the then Brigadier Chiwenga. When Freeth accused Chiwengwa of plagiarising an essay, the former guerilla knew he faced dismissal from the elite academy. The following morning, Freeth was informed that Chiwenga had shot himself twice and was in intensive care. Chiwenga survived and when he returned to the college, Freeth said nothing. ‘After that, the whole thing was forgotten, but he knew perfectly well I hadn’t shopped him and could have done,’ Freeth said. He added that when Chiwenga became defence chief in 2003 he invited Freeth to his office ‘and said if you ever need anything . . .’
