How Kabila hedged his bets

After stalling for years and then organising a flawed election, the people of the DRC may not have heard the last of President Joseph Kabila. As previously reported in Legalbrief Today, the electoral commission declared one of the opposition leaders, Felix Tshisekedi, as the winner of the poll with 38.5% against Martin Fayulu’s 34.8% and Emmanuel Shadary’s 23.8% from a voter turnout of 47.7%. In a Daily Maverick analysis, Siphosami Malunga notes that Kabila’s ‘Plan A’ and preferred candidate, Shadary, promptly conceded defeat and accepted the result. But Martin Fayulu, the other leading opposition candidate, rejected the outcome. He claimed to have won 61% of the vote against Tshisekedi’s 18%. The Conference of Catholic Bishops, which had earlier declared that its observers had identified a winner without naming him, argued that the electoral commission result was not consistent with its observers’ findings. ‘Critics of Tshisekedi’s victory argue that he was Kabila’s Plan B. They say that, realising that Shadary was an impossible shot, Kabila activated Plan B, which was an easier sell to the Congolese and the world. The plan was apparently to steer votes to Tshisekedi against Fayulu. Tshisekedi – recently thrust into political limelight – is viewed by some as more malleable and less strong-willed than his firebrand late father, Etienne, whom many acknowledge was unfairly denied electoral victory in 2011. There is another reason advanced by sceptics. Fayulu’s political allies include sworn Kabila enemies, Moise Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba. A Fayulu victory would not be in Kabila’s political interest, they say. They argue that Kabila and Tshisekedi struck a deal in which Kabila will designate a Prime Minister and be indemnified for past wrongs, including corruption. Tshisekedi and his supporters vehemently reject this theory and argue that his victory is solid and unassailable. In any event, the results announced show that Kabila’s coalition has won a majority in the provincial and national Parliaments. This means that Kabila’s camp will have full control of the provinces as well as the Senate since the powerful provincial governors and senators are elected by the provincial legislatures.'

Full analysis on the Daily Maverick site